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How is the data produced?

AFS is modelled using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model by the Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University.

The model incorporates a variety of inputs, including labour market statistics, education data, macroeconomic and demographic data, and the most recent Queensland Treasury employment forecasts (at the time of modelling).

Draft modelling is then tested with industry representatives to gather feedback on:

  • the probability of the employment trends presented
  • the accuracy of the projection trends for each scenario
  • industry developments that substantially impact the draft projections.


(PDF, 268 KB)


What are the scenarios?

Scenario planning is one method of dealing with the high levels of complexity and uncertainty around determining the future of employment and jobs. When contrasted with baseline projections, deviations of the scenario projections can be examined to measure their impact on employment. This assists us to understand the driving forces that influence future skills needs.

The scenarios in this modelling include:

  • Scenario 1 – exploring technological change
  • Scenario 2 – examining the impact of increasing interstate migration with a declining proportion of working age population
  • Scenario 3 – investigating the impact on employment if the price of coal and iron ore fall by 50 per cent.


What is replacement demand?

While much of AFS contains data about new jobs, this is not the only way that job openings occur. Job openings also arise when people leave an occupation, either for a new occupation or through retirement or even death. This is called replacement demand.

AFS contains state-level occupation data for new jobs, replacement demand and total job openings.


(PDF, 174 KB)