Behind the modelling

How the data is produced

AFS is modelled using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model by the Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University.

The model incorporates a variety of inputs, including labour market statistics, education data, macroeconomic and demographic data, and the most recent Queensland Treasury employment forecasts (at the time of modelling).

Draft modelling is then tested with industry representatives to gather feedback on:

  • the probability of the employment trends presented
  • the accuracy of the projection trends for each scenario
  • industry developments that substantially impact the draft projections.

Read more about the methodology
(PDF, 282 KB)

What are the scenarios?

Scenario planning is one method of dealing with the high levels of complexity and uncertainty around determining the future of employment and jobs. When contrasted with baseline projections, deviations of the scenario projections can be examined to measure their impact on employment. This assists us to understand the driving forces that influence future skills needs.

The scenarios in this modelling include:

  • Scenario 1 – Digitalisation post-COVID: Examines the effects of generative Artificial Intelligence on selected occupations.
  • Scenario 2 – Changing Skills Profile: Investigates the impacts of changing growth rates of various qualifications.
  • Scenario 3 – Global headwinds: Explores the effects of global headwinds, such as demographic change in China, on employment.

What is replacement demand?

While much of AFS contains data about new jobs, this is not the only way that job openings occur. Job openings also arise when people leave an occupation, either for a new occupation or through retirement or even death. This is called replacement demand.

Combining replacement demand jobs and jobs arising from occupational growth provides total job openings.

AFS contains state-level data for new jobs, replacement demand and total job openings and is available for both occupations (ANZSCO three-digit level) and industries (ANZSIC three-digit level).

Find out more about replacement demand
(PDF, 202 KB)