Jobs Queensland is tasked by the Queensland Government to undertake research and provide advice on future skills needs. The Anticipating Future Skills project, which entails the economic modelling of future scenarios, is one of the ways in which Jobs Queensland is performing this work.
In consultation with stakeholders across the State, Jobs Queensland devised three future scenarios, which are useful tools for dealing with complexity and uncertainty. Grounded in existing data and trends, scenarios do not generate predictions but depict plausible futures. When contrasted with a baseline or “business as usual” scenario, alternative scenarios can be used to measure their impact and identify what factors may or may not influence outcomes.
The final scenarios cover the period 2017 to 2022 and include:
- Technological Change: increasing labour productivity of all industries in Queensland so that the productivity of each is 0.25 per cent higher than the baseline each year between 2017-18 and 2021-22.
- Changing workforce: increasing interstate migration with a decreasing proportion of working aged population (15-64 years).
- External impact: halving the price of coal and iron ore.
A baseline scenario to 2022 was also produced, based on 2017 labour market, population and economic data and the Queensland Government’s 2017-18 Budget papers. Economic modelling of each scenario produced data for industries, occupations, regions and qualifications, using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) classification systems. Draft modelling was tested with a wide range of industry and regional stakeholders and feedback incorporated into the final results.
According to the baseline, there were 2,373,023 people employed in Queensland in 2017, and by 2022 employment is projected to increase by almost 190,000 people, or eight per cent.
Regardless of the scenarios used in this analysis, employment in Queensland is projected to increase by between 7.6 and 9.3 per cent by 2022.
A report entitled Anticipating Future Skills: Jobs growth and alternative futures for Queensland to 2022 (PDF, 2.25MB), provides more information about the project background, methodology and modelling. Jobs Queensland has also produced a number of regional, industry and occupational data tools for those wishing to explore the data in more detail.